AWARDS INTELLIGENCER: Oscar Best Picture Noms Are a Muddle – Thelma Adams reports
The Golden Globe nominations are in, along with those of the National Board of Review winners and a host of critics’ groups – Why is the Oscars Best Picture category still such a muddle?
It seems to me that the potential Best Picture winners have been split into categories, like potential Jeopardy questions: Barbenheimer; All the Big Dudes; The Cool Kids; The Internationals; and Outlier Odds and Ends.
BARBENHEIMER BROUGHT THE AUDIENCES BACK TO THEATERS
Let’s look at Greta Gerwig’s Barbie first. It’s subject to the taste test: is it a candy or a breath mint? Is it a blockbuster turning Mattel plastic into gold – and hence less of an awards contender? Or, is it a female-directed indie supersized that globalizes topple-the-patriarchy feminism? The only sure categories are production design and song – but the doll could pull off a surprise sweep. Again, muddle.
In contrast, Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer, a big-grosser, is more traditional Oscar bait – a critical moment in American history reexamined with period-perfect hats and coats, moral weight and a topless Florence Pugh. Since the weekend that the two movies broke out, they have generated Oscar buzz, but neither has yet solidified their positions as the frontrunner even if both will land in the top ten Best Picture nominations. More muddle.
ALL THE BIG DUDES:
Oppenheimer crosses into this territory, too. In the male-dominated DGA, Christopher Nolan appears to have the edge, and his film will top many best of 2023 lists. Then there’s Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon. Scorsese is director royalty. The movie was both a hit and a large part of the cultural conversation. It’s very possible that Best Picture and Best Director will be split between the two of them.
Michael Mann’s Ferrari, which I personally love, would also have fit in here but it seems to have rolled-over and run off the track. And then there’s the big dude that is Lenny Bernstein manifested by Bradley Cooper in Maestro. Director! Co-writer! Star! Just opening in theaters this week, Maestro will be recognized but it’s a crowded movie mosh pit. Something’s gotta give.
THE COOL KIDS
Here’s where it gets tricky. Is there a break-out among American Fiction (my dramedy favorite), the astounding first film Past Lives, the audacious crowd-pleaser Poor Things and the deeply moving All of us Strangers? With a year as strong as this one is, we may find them all among the top ten BP contenders – but can they toss a wrench into the campaigns of the big Hollywood marketing machines? Will one of them Crash through?
One thing is for sure: while it may not have been a great year for theaters, 2023 has delivered quality films.
THE INTERNATIONALS
Both the French Anatomy of a Fall and German The Zone of Interest have been on the Oscar radar since Cannes. Both gleaned top honors there. It’s possible that either director may crack into the Best Director field – but it’s so crowded. However, with so many recent accolades from critics’ groups, it seems likely that both films will likely land among the Best Picture nominees.
Pushing further, and a topic for another column, is how very, very competitive is the race for Best International Feature Film – including such terrific films as Fallen Leaves, The Taste of Things, Totem, The Promised Land and The Teachers’ Lounge for a start.
OUTLIER ODDS AND ENDS
The Golden Globes snub of The Color Purple signals a potential drop in this late entry musical remake. I’m still hoping that Rustin, driven by Colman Domingo’s performance, an unmatchable ensemble and a Civil Rights story that needs to be told, will find recognition. And then there’s Alexander Payne’s The Holdovers. The reunion of Payne and star Paul Giamatti in a feel-bad then feel-good holiday movie will be recognized in other categories, but if Academy members are feeling true Payne love for one of his best movies in years, the dramedy could make a stronger showing.
AND SO, WHAT’S THE MUDDLE?
In conclusion, the first round of nominations and awards have arrived, but their picks haven’t coalesced around a clear front-runner yet. It’s also unlikely, given the December schedule of releases, that there will be a last minute sudden arrival that will blow out the competition in the final stretch.
A question: Now that you’ve sifted through the early awards precursors, who do you think is currently out front: a movie from the old guard or the new?
